Census A Less Than Beautiful Set Of Numbers For Melbourne 2030

The Age

Saturday June 30, 2007

Royce Millar, City Editor

THIS week's census revealed that Melbourne's sprawl continues almost unaffected by years of public policy aimed at containing it. Academics and planners delving into the Bureau of Statistics figures say the city's expansion raises serious questions about the Bracks Government's approach to urban development.

During the week, The Age reported on two sets of census results, which seemed to contradict each other. First was the Melbourne City Council biennial study of the CBD and surrounds, showing a booming inner city with many new residents and apartments.

The second was the ABS five-yearly national census, which pointed to big population growth on the metropolitan fringe. In fact, the two are not at odds. Both inner and outer Melbourne are robust and growing, it's just that large swaths of suburbia in between are stagnant, and even shrinking.

The inner-city resident growth centred on a relatively small area, with apartments in Docklands, Southbank and Port Phillip accounting for much of it.

Beyond those neighbourhoods, population growth quickly tapered, with many middle suburbs - both wealthier middle-class areas such as Doncaster and their equivalent to the north and west such as Broadmeadows - experiencing little or no growth.

Banyule in the north-east, and Planning Minister Justin Madden's own stomping ground, Moonee Valley in the west, have dwindling populations.

But on the urban fringe, and especially to the far west at Melton (up 52 per cent) and the south-east Cardinia (up 24 per cent), population rose dramatically. Analysis by The Age and Monash University shows households in outer suburbs have grown by more than 60 per cent. While the Government anticipated continued expansion in these growth corridors, the census figures represent a major blow-out when compared with its metropolitan planning strategy, Melbourne 2030, which aims to get greenfield housing development down to about 30 per cent of the Melbourne total.

Under Melbourne 2030, the Government also aimed to improve housing affordability and reduce car reliance. But the census shows that on both these counts, the trends are in the wrong direction.

Planning commentators were generally agreed this week that the census was bad news for Melbourne 2030. Planning consultant Adam Terrill said the census showed that growth in middle Melbourne, such as Camberwell, Mount Waverley and Bentleigh, had "stagnated", partly due to rising building costs but also protests by powerful resident groups.

He said the census gave the lie to claims by middle suburban resident groups that they were being "swamped" by housing development.

"Generation X and Y first-home buyers are being locked out of well-serviced, liveable suburbs, often by their parents campaigning against new infill developments."

Mr Terrill, a director of Tract Consultants, said it was crucial that the State Government re-thought Melbourne 2030.

"Melbourne's increasing growth rates mean the State Government needs to reset the clock; everything from transport to power to water needs reassessment," he said.

Melbourne University geographer, Professor Kevin O'Connor, noted that as well as growth on the fringe, the municipalities just beyond, including Ballarat, Bendigo, Macedon and Baw Baw, were also expanding quickly. He said this growth should be viewed as overflow from Melbourne and an extension to the city's frontier.

He described the decline in population in areas such as Moonee Valley as "a worry".

"A really good urban consolidation policy would see gains larger in the inner city and across a wider spectrum of places."

Yesterday, Mr Madden would not be interviewed on the census. He said that continued growth on the outskirts of Melbourne was always part of the Melbourne 2030 plan and that growth was being managed by channelling the expansion into designated growth corridors.

Mr Madden pointed out that housing affordability had declined across Australia, not just in Melbourne, and the average price of a new house on the outskirts of Melbourne was about $100,000 less than a similar house in Sydney.

But if this week's confirmation of growth in 2001-06 is ringing alarm bells, then forecasts for the future should have them at deafening volume. The ABS now believes Melbourne's population could grow by as much as two-thirds by 2051, a much bigger number than the estimate that underpins Melbourne 2030.

© 2007 The Age

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